China's GDP
on 02.02.24
Mossy Character sends in this link without comment - Through the Looking Glass: China's 2023 GDP and the Year Ahead - because he has utter confidence in my ability to do it justice.
The headline story of 2023 was the continued contraction in the property sector. At its peak, the broad property cluster represented nearly a quarter of all activity in China. In March 2021, China was building new residential property at a rate of 1.71 billion square meters per year. By December 2022, that had fallen by half, to 881 million square meters. From January to October 2023, it fell another 20%, to 699 million square meters, where it may be bottoming out. Based on reporting from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the period year-to-date through November, China invested RMB 2 trillion less in the real estate sector than it did in the same period in 2022--a drop equivalent to 1.6% of China's GDP. All things equal, some other investment activity would have to fill that hole just to avoid negative growth in investment this year, let alone paint a positive picture.
We're talking about those photos of what looked like whole cities that were built and abandoned, right?
(This is a wonderful example of a deliberate decision to choose community over attention.)
Links
on 02.01.24
Do you all want to discuss Neuralink? Or Starlink? or linksys? or Linkin Park? no?
BoRU
on 01.31.24
I would like to submit for your approval two extremely high quality entries from Best of Redditor Updates:
1. My family forgot to invite me to my grandparents funeral, but they are convinced I was there.
2. AITA for getting a makeover to mess with my BIL
This one is a bit sadder and darker, but the author is endearing.
Obviously anything on the internet could be a creative writing exercise, and sometimes BoRUs definitely are. But I think one of the things I like about them is that the rhythm of how they unfold often doesn't feel at all like a plotline. I think there's something really interesting to the narrative arcs that are stilted and then rushed, or the surprises all being crammed together unceremoniously, or updates that are entirely banal.
Guest Post: Gender divergence in political beliefs
on 01.30.24
NickS writes: Two articles both responding to a series of charts posted by John Burn-Murdoch showing that young men and women have increasingly divergent political beliefs.
First, Richard Reeves (who wrote Dream Horders and, most recently, Of Boys And Men):
The mistake that many people on the political left make is to dismiss any rightward move by young men as nothing more than a reactionary backlash against the progress of women. And of course these is some of that. But it's not the main story. Young men in the U.S. are indeed more hostile to feminism than older men, according to a 2023 Equimundo survey. But this does not seem to equate with opposition to the basic ideal of equal opportunities by gender. So what's going on? I think a few things are happening here:
Young men see feminism as having metastasized from a movement for equality for women into a movement against men, or at least against masculinity.
Young men are struggling on lots of fronts, especially in terms of education and mental health.
Young men feel like these concerns are not being addressed, or sometimes even acknowledged, by mainstream institutions.
Here's the thing: they're not wrong.
As I say a bit too often, but I'll say it again anyway, the failure to address the problems of boys and men creates a dangerous vacuum in our culture, and increasingly in our politics. As Daniel Schwammenthal, director of the American Jewish Committee's Transatlantic Institute, says:
The iron rule of politics is that if there are real problems in society and responsible parties don't deal with them, the irresponsible parties will jump on them.
I've been struck by Reeves' blogging that he seems to be struggling to balance his intuitive feelings that there's a really big obvious concern about whether contemporary culture treats boys and men well, with an attempt to be judicious in reading the research and careful about how to present his concerns. This particular post feels more titled towards hectoring than some, but I'm sharing it because Dr. Alice Evans also responded to the same data with a much longer post about how her research on patriarchy and the "great gender divergence" informs her reading of the data:
My teenage years were quite typical for a middle-class Western Millennial (born in 1986).
I grew up in a commuter town in the Kentish countryside. We didn't have smart phones, online games, or personal entertainment. Our TV had four channels. After 6pm, it was a choice of BBC News or the Simpsons. The whole family read the same newspaper. There was little prospect of polarisation.
My social circle comprised both male and female friends. Over the holidays, they came to play Nintendo. Mario Kart was a non-networked game - much more enjoyable with friends. Cross-legged on the carpet, we raced as Toad, Diddy Kong and Peach Princess. When we were too young for pubs, I hosted 'garage parties'. I swept the concrete floor, arranged the white plastic chairs, then others shared beers and cigarettes. Never classy, but always great fun!...
Mixed friendships cultivate empathy Everyone has their own personal struggles. Unaware of another person's trials and tribulations, we may think they have it 'easier'. Through my research, I've learnt how empathy can be fostered by mixed gender friendships.
In Catalonia today, feminism is a common topic of conversation. Young women are publicly criticising inequalities; some are also educating their male friends. Santiago (who's just finished school) shared examples of his friends resisting machismo.
After being jilted, one guy said women are whores (puta). She replied "No, a woman may decide who they wish to go out with".
Groups of guys can get rowdy, especially when drinking and watching football. Santiago's female friends complained, they wanted to leave. He learnt that aggression made them uncomfortable and thereafter he became more sensitive.
Kissing on the cheek is a traditional Spanish greeting. But Santiago's female friends find this too intrusive. They prefer to shake hands with strangers. By speaking out and supporting each other, young Catalonians are creating a public sphere in which women feel more comfortable.
Heebie's take: I go back and forth on whether or not I think boys are in crisis. Sometimes I agree that it's a terribly hard thing to be a young man starting out, and we need to do something before they all become incels.
Other times, I think this is same as it ever was. But I do agree that those charts (reposted in the links) are worrisome.
Guest Post: Beyond Bake Sales
on 01.29.24
Lurid Keyaki writes: Curious if any commenters will argue against this: Europe Must Urgently Prepare to Deter Russia Without Large-Scale US Support.
Heebie's take: this is stressful for me to think about!