Dumb questions about Gaza
on 03.08.24
I had already been trying to write a post that was basically, "What are the most effective things Biden should be doing to end the violence in Gaza?" but I get so stuck in wondering if it's a dumb question or if it will provoke a contentious thread that isn't contentious in a merry, biting way, but is contentious in a people-storming-off way.
But now I know: Biden can build a port to get aid to Gazans! AND more importantly, Biden can help give me a smooth segue to write this post.
What else can be done? If we suspend military aid to Israel, is it automatically a sure thing that it would invite invasions of Israel? Is there any actual realistic, effective mechanism to provide military aid that doesn't get used to kill civilians on a mass scale?
For the sake of discussion, let's not get too distracted by the domestic politics of an election year. I'm more curious about what's even on the menu of options. (I never would have guessed "build a port" as a step to take.)
It just seems insane that we're simultaneously providing weapons to one side and aid to the other.
Guest Post: Calculating Inflation
on 03.07.24
NickS writes: I would be interested in help working through this argument that interest rates might explain why the current measure of inflation doesn't match public sentiment:
[N]ow when we measure the costs of housing, we're actually just looking at rent prices, and we are saying for homeowners: How much money would you have gotten if you were to have rented out your house for the year? And so that's what we're using as the measure of house prices. And it has a few distortionary effects on the measure of the CPI. Most importantly, for our discussion, is that it used to include mortgage costs, so interest rates used to really enter into the CPI, and now mortgage costs are completely absent. So now we see no responsiveness of the CPI to interest rates.
Seeing Larry Summers associated with the paper makes me immediately skeptical:
The apparent disconnect between voters' negative feelings about the economy and encouraging government statistics are likely to be in the spotlight in the months leading up to the November election.
"For anyone concerned with political economy, it's a kind of central puzzle of our moment," Summers told NPR in an interview.
But the puzzle is real, and it would be helpful to have an alternative measure that might have more political predictive ability, so I'm curious if this alternative inflation calculation is worth paying attention to.
Heebie's take:
1. Is the puzzle still real when you subtract out the Republican voters who will say the economy is on fire any time the president is a Democrat? And the outsized impact that the Fox noise machine seems to have lately? (cf: Biden is a doddering old fool.)
2. Is the puzzle still real when you use economic measures that correlate with the median American's lived experience, and not the soaring S&P500?
3. Is the puzzle still real when you account for the recency of the inflation spike, and accept that people's baseline comparison about prices are still pre-inflation spike?
I think the first answer is "no" but the second one is maybe "yes", and the third is "no".
I'm inclined to think the rising interest rate explanation is silly, because it seems like the type of thing that affects rich people far more than poor people. Interest rates are back to early 2000's levels, and while I get that the average American is having a hard time remembering as far back as 2016-2020, it still seems like interest rates are within normal ranges.
Guest Post: abortion, France
on 03.06.24
Chris Y. writes: Let's all play catch up.
Heebie's take: must be nice.
Water Rights
on 03.05.24
Mossy sends in: Climate change, cost and competition for water drive settlement over tribal rights to Colorado River.
Related: Supreme Court rules against Navajo Nation in Colorado River water rights case
Heebie's take: First, the second article is from last summer, so it's background rather than resolution to the first article.
FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. (AP) -- A Native American tribe with one of the largest outstanding claims to water in the Colorado River basin is closing in on a settlement with more than a dozen parties, putting it on a path to piping water to tens of thousands of tribal members in Arizona who still live without it.
Negotiating terms outlined late Wednesday include water rights not only for the Navajo Nation but the neighboring Hopi and San Juan Southern Paiute tribes in the northeastern corner of the state. The water would come from a mix of sources: the Colorado River that serves seven western states, the Little Colorado River, and aquifers and washes on tribal lands.
On those tens of thousands of tribal members who stand to gain access, you might wonder if they're currently on well water?
About one-third of the homes on the Navajo Nation do not have running water.
That is crazy! Not to be an ignorant white lady, but what?!!
Not my skill set.
on 03.04.24
I cannot tell you how much I hate event planning. I found myself on the hook for a mini-conference style event, which happened on Saturday. I would not have agreed, except that it was conceived and mostly executed by students, and I'm a softie when it comes to students. And they really did do a ton of work - I have no beef with them.
Nevertheless. I thought I'd feel elated once it was finally over, but instead I just feel a little burnt out and cranky.
I would rather do committee work than event planning. I would rather grade papers than event planning. I just can't stand the infinite to-do lists of one-off tasks and promotional work to get people to attend (especially when I actually think it would be quite reasonable for them not to). I loathe every minute of it!