1. Four years ago, we got a yard sign featuring this photo of Divine sneering at Trump and Ivana. A friend mentioned how it was a bummer that we can put these out again this year, and all of a sudden I remembered that last time, we brought it in every night because I assumed it would get stolen otherwise.

The memory made me recall how much more dangerous the atmosphere felt in 2020. I remember watching Trump Trains go by, and feeling like I needed to have my phone ready in case some black person was going to get harassed. And the Biden Bus incident, which was local.

Maybe it's too early to say this, but I'm hopeful that Trump isn't quite as able to harness literal violence like he was in 2020. The white supremacists don't feel quite as mobilized and visible as they did in 2020.

2. Isn't is funny that in 2016, HRC was dogged by people who formed their opinion of her based on media coverage 25 years earlier, and just couldn't shake that first impression, no matter how much evidence to the contrary? whereas now, the same caliber of voter seems to be having trouble recalling what exactly a Trump presidency felt like 4-8 years ago? so funny.

3. It's wild how much skinnier newspapers have gotten. Literally the width, along with all the other dimensions, sticks out to me. I'm not as depressed by this as my parents are, though.

LW writes: China has too much industrial capacity for making ICE cars, number produced is in absolute decline. I'm completely a spectator on this, no professional knowledge of how the transitions to electric vehicles and maybe away from current models of personal vehicles will play out. Basically, this was interesting reading about one facet of that transition, also China's economy seems worth learning about this year especially. Brad Setser's link from twitter, probably subscriber share.

In 2017, Hyundai invested $1.15bn in a new factory in Chongqing, southwestern China, with the goal of reaching an annual output of 300,000 internal combustion engine cars. But six years later, the rapid switch by Chinese consumers to electric vehicles has stalled sales, forcing the automaker to sell the factory in December for less than a quarter of the investment value.

I would love similarly concise reading about Tesla's battery production capacity and problems. I skimmed wikipedia for the other connected pair of topics that I think are useful for thinking about this, lifetime and user safety of Li-ion batteries. (Clandestine e-bike shop in your apartment's storage area?) Here's interesting ref.206 from the Wikipedia page for those:

Our research included studies of counterfeit and low-quality lithium-ion cells, and our observations on the differences between these and original ones, as well as the significant safety implications, are discussed. The counterfeit cells did not include internal protective devices such as the positive temperature coefficient or current interrupt devices that typically offer protection against external short circuits and overcharge conditions, respectively, in cells from original manufacturers. Poor-quality materials and lack of engineering knowledge were also evident on analyses of the electrodes and separators from low-quality manufacturers.

Heebie is TAKELESS!

I have an unpopular take that I'm putting here instead of yelling at my colleagues. For context, I'm at a SLAC that prides itself on its teaching. The research expectations are minimal. The vast majority of classes are 10-25 students. Most faculty teach a 4-4 or a 3-4.

When you're in a situation where quality teaching is the most important part of your job, and where you don't have 80+ students in a class, and where your students are mediocre, then you abso-fucking-lutely must learn your students' names. Within the first few weeks, in fact.

Mediocre students just don't learn from a gorgeous presentation of the material. They just straight up need to have a bit of a relationship with you. You should be doing a whole lot more, but I just think not learning names is inexcusable. (If your students are strong, they'll learn the material anyway. Do whatever you want.)

The excuse about being bad at learning names is absurd. You can call roll at the beginning of class for the sole purpose of quizzing yourself! See if you can pick out the student before calling their name! You're smart. You can do this.

Thank you for coming to my talk of some sort, can't be bothered to remember which kind.

NickS writes: I feel slightly bad about sending this in -- I'm not happy about how much mental space the election will take this year, but I think it's a good piece. I'm not familiar with the author, but it's well written and well researched and I appreciate how clear he is about the subject and objective elements of his predictions.

I sometimes say that we don't make predictions only because we think they are going to be precisely accurate, but because doing so gives us a framework to notice when events or new information changes our impression of the world. It can be easy to update our beliefs retroactively and say, "oh, it was always obvious that things would turn out like X" rather than saying, "I had thought Y would be a key dynamic, and it turned out that Z was more important." So, in that spirit, I recommend:

Pennsylvania: Of all the swing states listed here, Pennsylvania is the one I've studied the most. On a few occasions, I've made 2024 estimates county by county (about as much fun as it sounds) in order to see how things might play out under different assumptions. Pretty much every time, I've ended up with the state being a virtual tie. Pennsylvania is the swing state that I see most likely to be decided by less than 1 point in either direction, which is to say, most of the other battleground states would seem to have a wider range of potential outcomes.

Heebie's take: As I tell my kids, NICKS, sometimes just a little bad is the right amount of bad to feel.

Anyway, the linked post is well-done, and he certainly knows more than I do. I feel like he's wrong on Nevada, even though he's just observing trends.

And also, there's a difference between saying people of color are warming up to Trump and black people in Georgia are warming up to Trump. I know everyone keeps saying the latter - specifically that black men are warming up to Trump - but I still hold out hope that once campaigning really reminds everyone of what their choices are, that it won't be a big effect.

Anyway, let's have eight more months like that state-of-the-union address, and we should be fine!

JRoth writes: Surely this column is good fodder. Not for the hooray, titties! of it, but for the:

We fucked it and that's fine; we can dust ourselves off and start again. I still think a society in which thinness equals goodness isn't the best we can do, but it remains the society we live in now. Denying that helps no-one. Equally, weird online cranks are probably worth listening to with at least half an ear when they say that busty blondes being back in fashion means that their side is winning. They're not entirely right, but they're not entirely wrong.

Heebie's take: First, the column is excellent, although I'm not sure if I agree with it yet. Go read it.

Second, I've had a weight-related post brewing in my head, based on two perennial gripes about weight-related articles. I think I'll tack them on here, because we don't need two body posts in close successions. But I'll put them under the jump.

Both these gripes have to do with when well-intentioned authors do not want to invite the reader into the trap of a willpower-based explanation of weight management. But in doing so, they tiptoe around a topic that is extremely relevant, or feels like an omission. (CICO = Calories In/Calories Out.)

1. There are articles about why dieting fails. They don't reject the math of CICO, but they'll talk about how the CICO model fails to account for set points, and leptin and ghrelin and so on. However, they seem scared to talk about hunger and appetite. That's a major part of it! Why can't we say that sometimes dieting fails because people don't like feeling really hungry, without blaming their lack of willpower?

2. There are articles about overweight people who suffer from anorexia. The sufferers have all the symptoms of starvation - hair falling out, not getting their periods, etc - except without getting thin. I think this is way more common than we acknowledge, and the people often get treated extra-horribly by the medical staff who refuse to believe that they're starving themselves.

However, the articles generally do not explain the CICO of it. There must be occasional binges! Acknowledging this does not undermine the suffering and reality of what they're going through. But the authors seem to think it will.